Byram, Mississippi 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

664
FXUS64 KJAN 141730
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1230 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025

...New AVIATION...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 1005 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025

Strong daytime mixing has commenced and winds are quite gusty as
we start to heat up. Will maintain the limited wind threat
graphic for the Delta region through the afternoon. All is
generally on track with the near term forecast elements and no
significant adjustments were made with this update. /EC/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 405 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025

Today and Tonight...The mid/upper level low pressure system will
continue to lift northeast into the Ohio River Valley through
tonight.  Left in its wake, northwest flow aloft prevailing across
the region as ridging aloft increases from the west.  At the
surface, the forecast area will become wedged between a deepening
low pressure system over the central plains and high pressure
centered just offshore of the west coast of the Florida Peninsula.

Despite some passing clouds overhead, quiet weather will prevail
across the forecast area through tonight.  With a tightening
pressure gradient over the region, winds will be pretty breezy today
from the southwest.  Across much of the area, winds will be
sustained around 15 mph, gusting between 20-25 mph at times.  These
winds will be a little higher across the Delta region and other
locations along and west of the Mississippi River today, as
sustained winds around 20 mph with gusts between 25-30 mph are
possible.  As a result, I`ve added a Limited Threat for strong winds
to this area, in the HWO.  Otherwise, under these gusty southwest
winds, look for warmer, more humid, conditions across the area today
as highs warm into the mid 80s to lower 90s.  Tonight, lows will
range from the middle 60s to lower 70s. /19/

Thursday through Tuesday...Not much has changed in the extended
forecast period. Quiet weather conditions will continue across our
forecast area on Thursday thanks to ridging aloft and high
pressure at the surface across the southeast region. Temperatures
will also increase around the Thursday timeframe with afternoon
highs forecasted in the upper 80s/lower 90s areawide. Global
guidance continues to show the ridge axis flattening on Friday,
with quasi-zonal flow prevailing across the CWA through the
weekend. With this qusai-zonal flow expected across the region
heading into Friday, an unstable airmass will begin to move into
the region. This airmass, combined with a couple of upper-level
disturbances aloft and some northerly moisture flow from the
Tennessee Valley, will allow for rain/storm chances across
central/northern portions of our CWA around the Friday through
Sunday evening/night timeframe. A few strong storms with wind
gusts up to 40 mph cannot be ruled out. It is possible that some
of these storms could reach marginally severe limits across
northern portions of our forecast area including portions of
southeast Arkansas. Some of the storms could produce heavy
rainfall at times, with rainfall totals ranging between 0.5-1
inches. Given that this system will moving quite fast across our
CWA, flash flooding concerns will be low; however, some localized
flash flooding cannot be ruled out. This event is still several
days away and there is still a lot of discrepancies between model
guidance regarding the overall timing of this system. Trends will
continue to be monitored as we get closer.

Rain chances will begin to decrease Sunday night into the new work
week as a sfc ridge builds over the southeast CONUS. Quiet
conditions will continue across much of our forecast area with a
slight chance of scattered showers across portions of the Golden
Triangle heading into Monday afternoon. Quiet weather conditions
will occur across the area looking ahead into Tuesday morning as
future global guidance shows the ridge axis beginning to slowly push
east away from our forecast area giving us a small little break from
the rain.

A 1004mb low pressure system hovering over the Central
Plains will push east towards the Ohio River Valley region Tuesday
afternoon/evening. The associated cold front over southern Texas
will track east towards the southeast region late Tuesday evening.
This combined with southerly moisture flow from the Gulf will help
reintroduce scattered showers/t-storm chances across our entire CWA.
Storm chances will continue heading into Wednesday. /CR/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025

VFR conditions will prevail at most sites through the forecast
period. Areas of low stratus/fog will be possible at southern TAF
sites by 08Z Thursday morning, lowering categories to MVFR/IFR and
brief periods of LIFR. Winds will continue to be
south/southwesterly with gusts of up to 25-30mph possible./KP/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       68  91  71  90 /   0   0   0   0
Meridian      66  91  69  91 /   0   0   0   0
Vicksburg     70  91  72  90 /   0   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   68  93  71  93 /   0   0   0   0
Natchez       69  90  71  89 /   0   0   0   0
Greenville    71  90  74  89 /   0   0   0  10
Greenwood     69  89  74  89 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

EC/CR/KP